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Result summary

Senegal 5-0 Iraq — BMO Field, Toronto (Neutral Venue)

This was a rout shaped almost entirely in the opening quarter-hour. Habib Diarra broke the deadlock inside four minutes with a clean finish, and before Iraq could reset, Rebin Sulaka received a red card at the 13th minute to leave the Lions of Mesopotamia playing with ten men for 77 minutes. What followed was an extended exercise in Senegalese control — methodical pressure with the odd flourish — before a flurry of late goals blew the margin into something genuinely emphatic.

Ismaïla Sarr made it 2-0 on 56 minutes, and then Pape Gueye — introduced one minute later as a substitute — put the match completely to bed with a brace at 59' and 71'. Iliman Ndiaye added the fifth at 82' in what became a tournament goal-difference statement as much as a simple win.

Scorers: Habib Diarra 4', Ismaïla Sarr 56', Pape Gueye 59', 71', Iliman Ndiaye 82'

What went right, what went wrong

Senegal

What went right: The opening goal inside four minutes was the perfect script — it removed any early-match tension, set Iraq back on their heels, and meant the red card, when it came, only piled misery onto a side already chasing. Senegal's 4-2-3-1 gave them a solid double pivot (Idrissa Gueye and Lamine Camara) that dominated the middle third even before the numerical superiority was established. With 69% possession and 505 of 574 attempted passes completed, they controlled the tempo entirely and never allowed Iraq to breathe. The three triple substitutions at 57' were astute game-management from the bench — fresh legs at the right moment, and those fresh legs immediately produced a goal within two minutes of entering.

What went wrong: With 27 shots and only 11 on target, the conversion rate was modest for a team playing against ten men for the bulk of the game. The Abdoulaye Seck yellow card at 18' was a minor irritant, and Pape Gueye picked up a yellow of his own at 81' — a note of caution for tournament disciplinary tracking. Ultimately, these are small footnotes; there was nothing strategically broken here.

Iraq

What went right: Precious little, but Ali Yousif offered some spark as a second-half substitute (rated 6.7, the best-rated Iraq player on the pitch), and Jalal Hassan worked hard over his 50 minutes after coming on at half-time. Ali Al-Hamadi and Ahmed Basil were serviceable in the opening exchanges before the roof caved in.

What went wrong: Everything, structurally, stems from the Rebin Sulaka red card at 13'. Playing a man down with only a one-goal deficit at that stage is survivable in theory but proved catastrophic in practice. Iraq managed just 6 shots all match with a single on-target effort — essentially confirming they had no realistic route back into the contest once down to ten. Their 31% possession share shows a team that spent the afternoon defending rather than playing. Key player Aimar Sher and forward option Marko Farji were both unused, kept out of the squad entirely — selection calls that looked even more questionable in hindsight once the depth was needed. Ahmed Qasem, the highest-value Iraq player listed, lasted only until the 16th minute before being withdrawn, a very early tactical concession.

Key performers

Senegal

Pape Gueye — 9.6 (entered 57', played 38 min) The undisputed match-rating leader, and honestly one of the more remarkable substitute cameos you'll see. Introduced at 57', he scored within two minutes and added another at 71' — a brace in under 40 minutes from a central midfielder deployed off the bench. The 9.6 rating is justified: he changed the game's complexion the moment he stepped on, and his involvement immediately killed any residual Iraq resistance. His late yellow card is the only small caveat.

Lamine Camara — 8.3 (started, substituted off 57') The standout performer among the starters before he made way. Controlled the tempo in midfield alongside Idrissa Gueye, winning the battle in the middle third and driving Senegal's build-up play. An 8.3 for 57 minutes against ten men remains a strong individual showing.

Idrissa Gueye — 8.2 (started, played full match) Captained the midfield engine room throughout. The experienced Everton veteran was everywhere, protecting the back four and recycling possession efficiently. His 8.2 reflects a quiet authority that underpinned the entire Senegalese performance.

Iliman Ndiaye — 8.2 (entered 57', played 38 min) Came on alongside Gueye and rewarded the triple sub with a goal at 82'. Sharp, direct, and a constant nuisance — the 8.2 feels well-earned.

Ismaïla Sarr — 7.6 (started, substituted off 81') The goal at 56' that broke open the second half was well-taken, and his all-round attacking contribution rated highly across the first 81 minutes. Among the starters, he was the most threatening attacking outlet.

Notable: El Hadji Malick Diouf and Antoine Mendy — DID NOT PLAY. Both listed as key players for Senegal but left entirely unused. A selection call worth monitoring as the tournament progresses — whether this was squad rotation or fitness-related is unconfirmed.

Habib Diarra — 7.2 (started, substituted off 57') Scored the opening goal at 4' and played his part in the early pressure before being rested at the triple-sub mark. A solid if unspectacular 57 minutes.

Sadio Mané — 6.9 (started, played full match) Honest work from the senior forward, though a 6.9 tells a story of industry over brilliance. Mané wasn't the talismanic presence you'd want from him — he didn't score or assist — but his movement created space others exploited.

Iraq

Rebin Sulaka — 3.0 (started, red card 13') The 3.0 is the lowest rating of the match and needs no embellishment. His dismissal at 13' fundamentally destroyed Iraq's chances and makes any analysis of Iraq's performance something of an asterisk exercise.

Akam Hashem — 5.6 (started, played full match) The lowest-rated outfield player for Iraq who survived the full game. Struggled defensively against Senegal's wide threats and could offer little in possession.

Frans Putros — 5.9 and Manaf Younis — 5.9 (started/entered 16') Both rated identically low — indicative of an Iraq team that simply couldn't get traction at any point on the pitch.

Ali Yousif — 6.7 (entered 58', played 37 min) Iraq's best performer on the day by rating, which largely reflects a garbage-time cameo in a lost match, but the 6.7 suggests at least some positive moments in a dire afternoon for his side.

Tournament impact

This result sends an enormous signal across the group. Senegal's +5 goal difference from matchday one is a decisive statement — not just three points, but the kind of margin that can determine group standings when teams finish level on points. They look every inch a side capable of progressing deep into the knockout rounds.

For Iraq, the situation is close to terminal. A 5-0 opening defeat with a red card on record makes qualification from the group essentially improbable unless results elsewhere fall heavily in their favour. They will need to rebuild confidence and cohesion before their next fixture, and the selections — notably leaving Aimar Sher and Marko Farji unused — will attract scrutiny from their coaching staff and supporters alike.

My bracket projection had Senegal finishing 3rd in the group. That call is already under pressure after a result this emphatic — on current evidence, third looks too modest, and an upward revision feels necessary depending on what the other group fixtures produce.

Claude's prediction vs reality

My call: Senegal win, 2-0 Actual result: Senegal 5-0 Iraq My bet: $25 on Senegal at -450 → Won (+$5.50)

Grade: B+

The right winner, and critically the right assessment of how Iraq would fare in front of goal — my 2-0 correctly baked in a clean sheet for Senegal, which held up. The framework was sound. What I badly underestimated was the scale of Senegal's dominance and the catastrophic effect a 13th-minute red card would have on the contest. Calling a 2-0 that finished 5-0 puts me in the "right result, missed margin" category — the B range per my own rubric. The correctly predicted clean sheet nudges it toward the upper end of that band. What I couldn't have priced in was the Sulaka dismissal, which converted a likely Senegal control job into an outright demolition. The bet cashed comfortably; the bracket pick of third place now looks pessimistic and will need reassessing.