Result summary

Spain 2–1 Belgium, quarter-final, SoFi Stadium. A game of shifting momentum resolved in the most dramatic fashion possible: substitute Mikel Merino, on the pitch for barely two minutes, headed Spain into the semi-finals at the death.

Fabián Ruiz broke the deadlock at the half-hour mark, but Belgium refused to wilt. Charles De Ketelaere levelled four minutes before the break — a gut-punch goal that sent both sides into the tunnel level and Belgium full of belief. Spain controlled the second half statistically without breaking through, and it took a 88th-minute winner from Merino — one of the tournament's finest cameo finishes — to separate two sides that deserved more than a coin-flip ending. Spain advance; Belgium are out.

Goal scorers: Fabián Ruiz (30'), Charles De Ketelaere (41'), Mikel Merino (88').

What went right, what went wrong

Spain — what went right

Luis de la Fuente's side did what they do: they suffocated opponents with the ball. Sixty-eight percent possession, 598 completed passes, 17 shots. Rodri anchored the midfield beautifully, allowing the attacking quartet to rotate and press in waves. The substitution architecture was clever — bringing Pedri on at 55' to inject craft, and then Merino in the 86th to add physicality at set-pieces — and it was that second roll of the dice that won the match.

Spain — what went wrong

Spain nearly talked themselves into extra time. Despite near-total territorial dominance, they were toothless enough in the final third to allow a single Belgian counter-sequence to tie the game just before half-time. Marc Cucurella (6.3) had a difficult afternoon on his flank, and Nico Williams, brought on at 79', had too little time to affect things (6.3 in 11 minutes). Spain won, but the creativity-to-goals conversion ratio should concern De la Fuente ahead of the semi-final.

Belgium — what went right

They were properly beaten on the metrics — 32% possession, five shots, one corner — yet they were seconds away from extra time. Thibaut Courtois was outstanding for the 70-plus minutes he was available (7.9, match-high), and De Ketelaere's equaliser was a moment of individual class against the run of play. Belgium's defensive structure held long enough that Spain only manufactured one goal until the 88th minute. That is not nothing against the world's most possession-dominant side.

Belgium — what went wrong

Losing Courtois to what appeared to be injury at 71' was a seismic blow — replacing your starting goalkeeper in a quarter-final is an enormous ask of any squad. Senne Lammens (6.2) came on cold into a match of that magnitude and ultimately conceded the winner. The attacking output was simply not good enough: five shots, two on target all game. Romelu Lukaku came on at 60' but contributed little (6.2). Kevin De Bruyne — already struggling to impose himself — picked up a yellow card at 85' and was promptly withdrawn, leaving Belgium's orchestration diminished at precisely the wrong moment. Matias Fernandez-Pardo, a listed key player, never left the bench.

Key performers

Thibaut Courtois — 7.9 | Match high. Belgium's goalkeeper was the outstanding individual on the pitch for the time he was available, making multiple crucial stops that kept his side in the contest. His forced substitution at 71' changed the texture of the last quarter entirely. A genuinely elite performance ended too soon.

Rodri — 7.6 | Spain's engine. The Manchester City midfielder controlled the tempo from deep, won the midfield battle comprehensively, and gave Spain the platform on which everything else was built. Quiet in the way only exceptional defensive midfielders can be.

Charles De Ketelaere — 7.5 | Belgium's best outfield performer. His 41st-minute equaliser was clinical and gave Belgium a lifeline they nearly converted into a miracle. Consistently dangerous in the half-spaces.

Fabián Ruiz — 7.3 | Opened the scoring and was Spain's most dynamic presence in the first half. His substitution at 55' made tactical sense once Belgium had levelled, but he had done his job. Shares a 7.3 rating with Pau Cubarsí, Lamine Yamal, and Dani Olmo — all solid without being spectacular.

Lamine Yamal — 7.3 | Persistent and direct throughout. Belgium had no clean answer for him across the full 90 minutes, even if the final product wasn't always there.

Mikel Merino — 7.2 | Twelve minutes, one winner, one passage to the semi-final. The numbers are modest but the moment was immense.

Underperformers: Marc Cucurella (6.3) was exposed at left-back on multiple occasions. Romelu Lukaku (6.2) and Senne Lammens (6.2) were the lowest-rated players in the match — Lukaku couldn't impose himself after his 60th-minute introduction, and Lammens conceded with his first real test. Nico Williams (6.3, 11 minutes) had no time to make an impact.

Notable selection call: Martín Zubimendi, one of Spain's listed key players, was an unused substitute — De la Fuente chose to back Rodri as his lone pivot throughout.

Tournament impact

Spain are through to the World Cup 2026 semi-finals, maintaining their status as the tournament's most credible contenders. The Merino moment will be replayed endlessly, but the structural question for De la Fuente is whether this attack — brilliant in possession, occasionally blunt in front of goal — can sustain itself in a semi-final against inevitably stiffer opposition. Rodri's fitness and form remain Spain's most important variable.

Belgium are eliminated at the quarter-final stage. This feels like the end of a generational cycle: Courtois injured off the pitch in a major tournament knock-out game, De Bruyne booked and substituted in the 86th minute, Lukaku unable to alter the game from the bench. The next chapter of Belgian football will be built around players like Doku, De Ketelaere, and Nathan Ngoy (7.2 tonight) — but the golden generation departs without the trophy it chased for a decade.

Claude's prediction vs reality

No prediction was logged for this match.