Claude

MexicoGroup A winner

Mexico's host-boosted Elo of 1876 and 48% MC group-win probability make them comfortable winners; South Korea edges Czech Republic thanks to Kim Min-jae's defensive dominance and a slightly superior Elo rating.

SwitzerlandGroup B winner

Switzerland's proven tournament pedigree and highest Elo in the group (1856) earn them top spot; co-host Canada rides the Davies and Jonathan David combination plus home-crowd energy into second.

BrazilGroup C winner

Brazil's attack trio of Vinícius, Raphinha, and Cunha is simply too much for this group; Morocco's Hakimi-led defensive structure and 2022 semi-final DNA secure second place over a limited Scotland side.

TürkiyeGroup D winner

Turkey's Güler–Yıldız starlet partnership gives them a 13-Elo edge and a 37.9% MC group-win probability over the USA; the co-host Americans still clinch second through Pulisic and Balogun's quality.

GermanyGroup E winner

Germany's Musiala–Wirtz engine room makes them dominant group favorites at Elo 1958; Ecuador's elite defensive spine of Caicedo, Pacho, and Hincapié is good enough to hold off a talented Ivory Coast for second.

NetherlandsGroup F winner

Netherlands coast to first with the group's only Elo above 2000; Japan's disciplined press and Kubo's creativity earn runners-up ahead of a Sweden side that despite Isak and Gyökeres lacks the same cohesion.

BelgiumGroup G winner

Belgium's Doku-led new generation is head-and-shoulders above this group at Elo 1929; Iran's tight defensive block and a 50-Elo advantage over Egypt edge them into second despite Salah and Marmoush's threat.

SpainGroup H winner

Spain's Elo of 2161 is the highest in the entire tournament — this group is a procession; Uruguay's de Arrascaeta creativity and battle-hardened experience comfortably nail second place.

FranceGroup I winner

France's Mbappé–Olise–Doué front three is arguably the most frightening attack in the draw; Norway's Haaland factor gives them a razor-thin Elo and MC edge over Senegal for second.

ArgentinaGroup J winner

Argentina stroll to first with an 81% MC group-win probability and a world-class attacking corps; Austria's high-pressing system under Laimer and Seiwald comfortably secures second ahead of Algeria.

PortugalGroup K winner

Portugal edge the tournament's tightest group-winner battle; João Neves and Vitinha controlling midfield tips the balance over Colombia, who at Elo 1984 are legitimate threats to flip this result.

EnglandGroup L winner

England's Elo of 2048 and 63.5% MC win probability make them dominant group favorites; Croatia's veteran tournament know-how and Vušković's emerging quality earn second place over Ghana.

CanadaRound of 32

Canada's Elo advantage (1804 vs 1748) and superior CONCACAF depth edges out South Korea in a tight encounter. The model's 58% implied probability for Canada is enough to back the North Americans.

GermanyRound of 32

Germany's Elo of 1958 and elite pressing system overwhelms Paraguay with ease. A 75% model probability reflects a comfortable margin of class.

NetherlandsRound of 32

Netherlands at Elo 2008 are simply a cut above Morocco, even accounting for Morocco's historic 2022 run. Dutch attacking quality through the flanks should prove decisive.

BrazilRound of 32

Brazil (Elo 2031) are too technically gifted and deep for Japan, who rarely survive elite pressure in the knockout rounds. A comfortable Brazilian progression at 75%.

FranceRound of 32

France at Elo 2122 are a freight train Sweden simply cannot stop; 89% model probability says it all. Mbappé & co. barely break a sweat.

EcuadorRound of 32

A coin-flip on paper (50/50), but Ecuador's slightly higher Elo (1851 vs 1849) and South American tournament savvy gives them a razor-thin edge. Home continent experience in a pressure knockout match matters.

MexicoRound of 32

Mexico's Elo of 1876 and greater World Cup pedigree (17 appearances) sees them through against a Scotland side making a rare deep run. A 65% model edge is comfortable enough to trust.

EnglandRound of 32

England (Elo 2048) are heavy favorites over Senegal at 78%, and their squad depth across every position should be the difference. A professional, if unconvincing, English victory.

TürkiyeRound of 32

Türkiye's Elo of 1872 gives them a commanding 72% chance against a Bosnia side making their World Cup debut. Experience and organized defensive shape wins this comfortably.

BelgiumRound of 32

Belgium (Elo 1929) and a 76% model probability make this straightforward against a Czech Republic squad with a huge Elo deficit. The Golden Generation's heirs close it out.

ColombiaRound of 32

Colombia (Elo 1984) edges Croatia (1901) with a 62% probability, and their vibrant counter-attacking style exploits Croatia's aging midfield. South American energy over European pragmatism.

SpainRound of 32

Spain (Elo 2161, #2 FIFA) are the highest-rated side in the tournament and brush Austria aside at 89% — their suffocating tiki-taka leaves Austria with no answers. A near-perfect performance expected.

SwitzerlandRound of 32

Switzerland (Elo 1856) have quietly become a tournament knockout specialist and dispatch Algeria at 66%. Their defensive organization and clinical set-pieces are the difference.

ArgentinaRound of 32

Argentina (Elo 2141) as defending World Cup champions handle a strong Uruguay side at 75% — the Albiceleste's winning culture and Messi-era mentality sees them through a spicy derby.

PortugalRound of 32

Portugal (Elo 2002) are massively superior to Ivory Coast (Elo 1729) with an 84% model edge. Ronaldo and the supporting cast make this a comfortable night in the round of 32.

USARound of 32

USA (Elo 1859) hold a 66% edge over Iran (Elo 1753) and the geopolitical subplot only adds fuel to an American side hungry to prove themselves on home soil. Their athleticism and pressing dismantle Iran.

FranceRound of 16

France (Elo 2122) vs Germany (Elo 1958) is a classic heavyweight tie, but Les Bleus' superior Elo and devastating forward line make them clear favorites. Germany's high-press is neutralized by France's elite transition speed.

NetherlandsRound of 16

Netherlands (Elo 2008) are simply too powerful for Canada (1804), with a class gap that shows up in every department. Van Dijk marshals the backline as Dutch quality proves decisive.

BrazilRound of 16

Brazil (Elo 2031) vs Ecuador (1851) is a samba masterclass — Brazil's technical superiority and creative depth is too much for a plucky Ecuadorian side. The Seleção march on comfortably.

EnglandRound of 16

England (Elo 2048) have too much quality for Mexico (1876) in a tense but ultimately one-sided affair. The Three Lions' Premier League-honed depth and physicality overwhelms El Tri.

SpainRound of 16

Spain (Elo 2161) vs Colombia (1984) — La Roja's dominance in possession suffocates Colombia's counter-attacking threat and their squad depth wins the battle of attrition. Spain advance with authority.

BelgiumRound of 16

Belgium (Elo 1929) edge Türkiye (1872) in a tight, physical affair — Belgium's experienced core and superior Elo edge sees them through a nervy encounter. Red Devils progress on quality.

ArgentinaRound of 16

Argentina (Elo 2141) vs USA (1859) is a talent gulf too wide for the hosts to bridge — Messi's experience and Argentina's defensive organization close out a confident win. USA's tournament run ends here.

PortugalRound of 16

Portugal (Elo 2002) are significantly stronger than Switzerland (1856) and their attacking firepower should overwhelm the Swiss defensive structure. A Portuguese victory with goals to spare.

FranceQuarter-final

France (Elo 2122) vs Netherlands (2008) is the pick of the quarter-finals — Les Bleus have the slight Elo edge and Mbappé's pace tears apart the Dutch high line. A narrow but decisive French win.

SpainQuarter-final

Spain (Elo 2161) against Belgium (1929) is a mismatch on paper — Spain's positional play and technical excellence suffocates Belgium's attack. La Roja look like genuine champions-elect.

EnglandQuarter-final

England (Elo 2048) hold a narrow Elo edge over Brazil (2031) in the tournament's most compelling quarter-final. England's defensive solidity and set-piece threat edges the Seleção in a pressure cooker game.

ArgentinaQuarter-final

Argentina (Elo 2141) vs Portugal (2002) — the Albiceleste's winning mentality and defensive experience in knockout football tips this against a brilliant but slightly brittle Portugal. Messi delivers when it matters most.

SpainSemi-final

Spain (Elo 2161) vs France (2122) is the defining semi-final — Spain's superior Elo and relentless collective system edges the individual brilliance of France in a tactical masterpiece. La Roja reach the final.

ArgentinaSemi-final

Argentina (Elo 2141) vs England (2048) — the Albiceleste's greater knockout experience and Messi-era mental fortitude sees them through a tense, physical battle. England's World Cup wait extends again.

FranceThird-place playoff

France (Elo 2122) bounce back to dismantle England (2048) in the third-place playoff, proving their semifinal defeat was a one-off. Mbappé puts in a statement performance to secure bronze for Les Bleus.

SpainFinal

Spain (Elo 2161) vs Argentina (2141) — the two highest-quality teams in the tournament meet in a mouth-watering final, and Spain's collective brilliance and tournament-high Elo edge out even the reigning champions. La Roja lift their second World Cup in style.